Projecting Yoshinobu Yamamoto: What to expect from the Japanese star pitcher

Publish date: 2024-06-08

Back home in Massachusetts after spending a season playing for the Saitama Seibu Lions in Japan, one of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s former opponents has encountered constant questions from childhood friends and college buddies who want to know more about the star free-agent pitcher.

Where does Yamamoto want to go?

How good is he, really?

Wherever Yamamoto signs, David MacKinnon, who reached the major leagues in 2022 with the Los Angeles Angels, expects success.

“He legitimately could win your Cy Young Award next year,” MacKinnon says he has insisted to friends. “Like, he’s that good. It’s not some scrub coming over here. He’s disgusting.

“It wasn’t fun facing him. You’d go up there and it was like, ‘Maybe I can get a hit. Yeah, maybe. Maybe he makes a mistake today.’ Or it was like, ‘I just gotta grind out a walk.’ You were just trying to not go 0-for-4.”

So far this winter, only superstar Shohei Ohtani has generated more buzz than Yamamoto. On a video call with Japanese reporters based in the U.S. last week, Joel Wolfe, a longtime agent with a history of representing stars, said of the fervor surrounding his client: “This is by far the player with the most interested teams that I have ever seen at the beginning of free agency.”

Yamamoto has until Jan. 4 to sign with a Major League Baseball team after the Orix Buffaloes, his team in Japan, posted him last Monday. Per Wolfe, nearly half the league has checked in on him. Though the agent wouldn’t name specific clubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants headline the group of teams reportedly coveting Yamamoto. Projections anticipate him reeling in a long-term deal north of $200 million.

A lot of the fuss surrounding Yamamoto stems from his age. Players traditionally do not reach free agency until they are around 30. Yamamoto stands out because he is only 25 years old.

There's a reason so many teams are in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto @JimBowdenGM gives his take on the recently posted Japanese ace 🔥 pic.twitter.com/z6F6LNwIij

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) November 26, 2023

There’s also this: Yamamoto can pitch like an ace, according to the consensus from a poll that The Athletic recently conducted about what to expect from him.

A group of eight people, including one former longtime teammate of Yamamoto, two players with experience against him and five scouts/executives who have heavily evaluated him, largely agreed that Yamamoto projects in the major leagues as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher.

“He’s legit-legit,” said outfielder Brian O’Grady, who played for the Saitama Seibu Lions in 2022 after spending parts of the previous three seasons with three MLB teams.

Translation: Yamamoto isn’t just a legitimately good pitcher. He is the kind of pitcher who can legitimately dominate.

MacKinnon said, “He’s nasty. He’s smart. He’s just a really, really good pitcher.”

Last season against Yamamoto, MacKinnon went 3-for-14 (.214 batting average) with a home run, three walks and four strikeouts — a stat line that he tells his friends qualifies as great.

For the past three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, Yamamoto has captured what Japan calls the quadruple crown by leading the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA and strikeouts. In 171 innings last season, he went 17-6 with a 1.17 ERA, 176 strikeouts and 28 walks. Over seven seasons in NPB, he has posted better numbers and rates than Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish and Kodai Senga. In his career, Yamamoto owns a 1.82 ERA.

The concern? Yamamoto is listed at 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, a frame that leads some to question his long-term durability and how his transition may go in MLB. Over the last 20 years, there have been only two starting pitchers standing 5-foot-10 or shorter to make an All-Star team: Sonny Gray (5-foot-10) and Marcus Stroman (5-foot-7). Coincidentally, Gray and Stroman are also free agents and should earn strong contracts, but neither linger close to Yamamoto’s tier.

Expressing a common, old-school stance generally held by some scouts, one evaluator said, “Giving $200 million to a small right-handed pitcher would scare the s— out of me.”

An evaluator with one of the lowest projections of Yamamoto said, “I see him as a No. 2 pitcher or a No. 3.”

However, noting that size one way or the other doesn’t guarantee durability, a scout mirroring the consensus opinion said, “That should be his floor.”

The same scout added, “He’s talented. Yamamoto is a freak as a little guy who can flat out ‘pitch’ and compete.”

Yamamoto’s intangibles have excited evaluators. After two poor postseason starts last month, Yamamoto responded in an elimination game during the Japan Series by racking up 14 strikeouts during a 138-pitch complete game. People who have watched him several times described Yamamoto as the kind of competitor who expects to succeed with every pitch and gets visibly upset at himself whenever he fails to execute.

“I saw him get hit around several times,” one evaluator said. “He doesn’t sulk or get down. He just keeps competing. He competes really well. It doesn’t speed up on him even when it’s not going well, he battles. I love the makeup. He’s a really good teammate and person from what I’ve heard as well.”

A teammate of Yamamoto’s for four seasons with the Orix Buffaloes, outfielder Stefen Romero said Yamamoto’s ability to surpass 110 pitches to secure complete games on several occasions impressed him. Romero, who spent parts of three seasons in MLB with the Seattle Mariners, said he wasn’t worried about Yamamoto’s size, adding that, “He is a player that can adapt to the circumstances at hand.” From Romero’s vantage point, Yamamoto performed minimal weightlifting, mostly targeting the core, trunk and legs. Romero said Yamamoto has a very strict flexibility routine and throws javelin spears for arm work, care and injury prevention.

“The way starting pitching is now, we are not developing 200-inning pitchers as an industry; we are just not,” another evaluator said. “I am not saying that’s right. It’s just the way it is with the reliance on more relievers. So I wouldn’t be too concerned about height or durability in that regard. With Yamamoto, it’s about the stuff.

“And the stuff is really, really good.”

Fastball command jumps out as a major tool. Yamamoto’s minuscule walk rate in Japan (5.7 percent) resembles Tanaka’s impressive figure in NPB (5.2 percent) and the best marks from Darvish (6.6 percent) and Senga (9.3 percent). However, scouts cautioned that NPB offense was down in 2023, especially for power, and batters in that league swung early to avoid getting down in the count and becoming vulnerable to Yamamoto’s other weapons. Clearly, he will have to pitch more carefully to MLB hitters, which would theoretically lead to more walks, a scout said.

Other scouts referred to Yamamoto’s pitch package as very good, noting he throws strikes and stays available even if there wasn’t any one particular aspect of his repertoire that was overly unique. In other words, unlike Senga, Yamamoto does not have a pitch that has garnered a nickname like Senga’s splitter or “ghost fork.” But the list of things he does consistently well is lengthy. His fastball checks in at 94-98 mph. He hits spots well. He works both sides of the plate with two-seamers in and cutters away. He weaponizes a curveball using a special grip — his thumb is more on top of the ball as opposed to spiking it — that produces a dramatic drop. And, like many Japanese pitchers, he utilizes a splitter that should perform well in MLB against batters who aren’t as familiar with it.

With the Mets, Senga, 30, raised expectations for pitchers coming over from Japan by finishing second in the National League for Rookie of the Year. Senga racked up 202 strikeouts (77 walks) in 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA. Scouts say Yamamoto can be better — just in different ways.

“He has good stuff that he locates well,” an evaluator said. “He has better feel-to-pitch than Senga with a wider arsenal but less raw stuff. Said differently, Senga can dominate with stuff. Yamamoto’s margins aren’t as big but he is crisper with it and it’s still quality stuff.”

A different evaluator said, “The stuff is better than the Mets’ Kodai Senga. Command is the biggest difference. Senga has great stuff. But he would get erratic at times. Senga has a plus-plus-pitch whereas Yamamoto looks more polished and operates more like a pitcher’s pitcher; he should go deeper into games. It should all translate well.”

Yamamoto’s most distinctive feature may be his windup — he throws the ball with minimal lifting of his foot, works quickly and uses deceptive pauses. MacKinnon and O’Grady said Yamamoto does a good job of thinking ahead and using a range of speeds, even with the same pitches. For example, his curveball can go as slow as 75 mph, and he uses different sliders at different speeds. Whereas Senga possesses the better splitter, both MacKinnon and O’Grady said Yamamoto has a superior curveball and a better fastball. The way Yamamoto works down on the mound with extension gives the illusion of his fastball rising or jumping at batters.

“He’s definitely really good,” O’Grady said. “In my opinion, he’s better than Senga, and you saw the success that Senga had.”

So how good will Yamamoto be? It’s always hard to tell. The questions from MacKinnon’s friends might as well serve as a microcosm of the industry. The outlook sure looks promising, though. But like every pitcher who comes from Japan, Yamamoto will have to acclimate to an array of different challenges such as different mounds, increased travel, better competition and more. The change in baseball texture alone may lead to other adjustments within his arsenal, too.

With Yamamoto, there are at least a couple of absolutes: he will surely get paid a lot of money, and wherever he goes, he will experience an adjustment period.

But those who have scouted him thoroughly are confident about another thing.

As one longtime evaluator said, “His pitchability will allow him to expertly navigate all of those challenges.”

(Top photo of Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images)

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Projecting Yoshinobu Yamamoto: What to expect from the Japanese star pitcher